The tide of green lighting application is coming. The LED lighting will be the irreversible trend. The incandescent lamps will be prohibited in Japan in 2012. Taiwan government also proclaims that it will prohibit all the energy intensive incandescent lamps. And European Union even has started to promote application of compact fluorescent lamp (CFL) and LED light to make the incandescent lamps out of market in 2012. At the same time, the United States will prohibit most of incandescent lamps and clear out 40w, 60w , 75w, and 100w incandescent lamps step by step.
Viewing the global market, 2011 will be the key time for traditional lamps pulling out of market and spreading new lighting technology. Development and Reform Commission predict that the incandescent lamps will be prohibited in China in less than 10 years. Now is already the time to promote. Example, the 'LED Industry Program of Guangdong Province' states that 30 millions LED indoor lights will be used during the two five-year plan, and will subsidize 30 ~ 50% in community construction to lead citizens buying LED lamps.
To realize the goal in 2012, the whole industry including LED chip manufacturer, components manufacturer, lights manufacturer and retailer do effort to launch new products-this phenomenon will be clearly showed in 2011. Some reports LED lighting producing will reach 10% in 2011. This will give the LED lighting industry the multilevel opportunity.
China's National Development and Reform Committee (NDRC) kicked off an LED luminaire development program in the second half of 2010. Under the initiative, NDRC will support 20 demonstrative projects for indoor lighting applications and 15 each for street lamps and tunnel lamps across the country. With the central government taking the lead, industry observers believe participating companies should see positive brand and company exposure. The price difference of LED street lamps and conventional energy-saving lamps will narrow in the first half of 2011 thanks to capacity expansion along the LED supply chain to realize economy of scale, the observers added.
The main growth driver will come from the ban on incandescent bulbs in Western Europe, market trends for energy-saving, the eco point policy in Japan which increased the LED light bulb market share to 20%, as well as low prices in the North America market, Hamburger noted.
Philips estimates that LED lighting will account for 50% of the total general lighting market in 2015, and 75% in 2020.
